I have started an experiment described here: https://two-wrongs.com/poker-is-surprisingly-generous
The gist of it is that I try to use my forecasting skills to beat low-stakes cash poker, where beat means a positive win rate. (More details on computation linked in that article.)
I am currently at 871 hands played, win rate point estimate at 11 bb/100, and standard error of 52 bb/100.
I hope to get to at least 5000 hands by 1 February -- but I don't have an upper limit. I will update my win rate estimation in the comments as often as I remember to.
It might seem like a conflict of interest that I'm buying shares in this market, but I assure you my interest in the actual experiment is much greater than that of this bet. I'm using the bet more as a commitment device than anything. (This means I will certainly not stop playing when I'm just barely positive just to win this bet – I will continue playing to the best of my ability and given the time I have available until that date.)
1,000
3.00I didn't end up playing more in the new year thanks to other commitments, which means the win rate stayed positive.
This means my attempt at disproving the hypothesis was weak, but on the other hand if anyone traded on my lack of focus and grit in this sort of thing, congrats! You were right!
2536, +7, 23
1717, +13.31, 32
(just came off a couple of lucky sessions)
hands, win rate, standard error
1597, -0.96, 33
I've had a rough time the past week. 1498 hands in total, win rate now at -2.7 bb/100, standard error 35 bb/100.
@EvanDaniel small stakes only -- a mix of 2/5 and 5/10 depending mostly on the size of my bankroll.
Up to 1101 hands now, and win rate point estimation currently at 26 bb/100, standard error of 43 bb/100.