https://manifold.markets/leaderboards
My all-time profits are about 180,000. To be on the top 50 leaderboard right now, they'd need to be about 280,000. At my current rate of profit growth, I'd expect to get there at about 1st July 2026. But in that time probably other people will also increase their profits. But my rate seems to be gradually increasing over time, so maybe I'll still cross the moving finish line?
Market resolves YES if, at any time between now and market close, I'm in the top 50 in the all-time profits leaderboard. (Feel free to ping me and paste a screenshot if you notice it before me.)
Market resolves NO if, at the close date, I have never (to my knowledge) been in the top 50.
If Manifold removes the leaderboard, but the information is still accessible, I will put in a modest amount of effort to access it, and if my all-time profits are in the top 50, that will still count for YES, even if the leaderboard itself doesn't exist.
If Manifold removes the leaderboard and the information is not accessible (or would only be accessible with an unreasonable amount of effort), market resolves to PROB to what the market probability was shortly before the abolition of the leaderboard. (I will choose "shortly before" semi-randomly to reduce the risk of shenanigans.)
If somebody gives me credible evidence that the leaderboard isn't real, or doesn't work properly at the time of market creation, market resolves NA.
I have never bought mana and don't intend to, but I don't promise not to. (Obviously this wouldn't increase my profits directly, but it would increase them indirectly - there are various opportunities that I don't fully exploit because I want to save my balance.)
I'm very torn about whether to bet in this market. On the one hand, its predictive value is probably better if I don't, since if I get a large enough position on the market, it could become partially self-resolving. But on the other hand, it sounds really fun to see what shenanigans ensue if I do bet in the market... Let me know if you have a strong view. I won't bet for the first week or so, and make a decision after that.
1,000Good luck! I think your growth rate is consistent enough to get above 300k before July 1st, the problem would be less-than-consistent users overtaking you if their big bets pay off or they just get lucky.
As for whether you should bet on this market, I think at the point where you are one of the top users by profit just this single market would not affect much your place in the leaderboard if you were to bet in it, but I have no strong opinions about it.