Will there be meaningful electoral reform in Germany in 2023?
22
159
430
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

Everyone agrees that the Bundestag is too big and bloated. For years there have been talks and attempts at electoral reform, but nothing was succesful. Will this year be different?

For more background information: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-set-to-shrink-its-xxl-parliament/a-64471203

Resolves Yes, if there is electoral reform that reduces the expected number of seats by 100 or more (there are currently 736 seats).

Thx for your comments. I have decided that this market resolves as follows

(i) no BVG ruling in 2023:

This resolves yes at the end of the year, unless there is strong evidence that the reform will not take effect before the next election.

(ii) BVG ruling in 2023:

If the BVG rules in favor of the reform, this resolves Yes immediately

If the BVG rules against the reform, this resolves No, if there is no other reform until the end of the year

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predicted YES

No strong evidence against, resolves yes

predicted YES
predicted YES

Thx for your comments. I have decided that this market resolves as follows

(i) no BVG ruling in 2023:

this resolves yes at the end of the year, unless there is strong evidence that the reform will not take effect before the next election.

(ii) BVG ruling in 2023:

When the BVG rules in favor of the reform, this resolves Yes immediately

When the BVG rules against the reform, this resolves No, if there is no other reform until the end of the year

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Listened to the latest Lage der Nation podcast. They essentially said "reduced number of seats is decided, now lets talk about further reforms".

predicted YES

I'm confused. As of right now, I can't find any evidence that CDU/Linke actually contested the reform. There are million articles that they are going to do that, but none confirming that they actually did. Does anyone know, if there is a legitimate chance that the passed reform will not take effect before the next election?

predicted YES

Since the opposition is contesting this reform in front of the Bundesverfassungsgericht, I'm inclined to wait for the ruling. Any arguments, why this should resolve now?

predicted YES

https://apnews.com/article/germany-electoral-reform-parliament-bundestag-0e96c6ef6a4d55d6f8f473c3251e5615 Passed today. „Bundestag, currently has a record 736 members. The changes approved on a 400-261 vote with 23 abstentions would reduce that number to 630„

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Italy leading the way, yet again.

We've reduced the number of seats before last year's election and nothing improved, because why would you expect it to.

It didn't EVEN reduce the expenses, they just quietly redistributed the same money among fewer people.

does the decision need to happen in 2023, or the "Grundgesätzänderung" (= "change to the basic law"), or the actual reform?

if the reform actually happens, the number of seats will be reduced in 2025, or even later.

my guess is that the decision will be made some time before the next election (2024 or early 2025), but the actuall size-reduction could happen at the election after that (in 2029).

predicted NO

@BjornJurgens Needs to be passed in 2023, does not need to be ratified in 2023. The only important thing is the expected number of seats after the reform, the number of seats of course does not change in 2023 itself, since there are no elections.

If a law is passed in 2023 that, e. g., hardcaps the number of seats at 598, the expected number of seats is reduced by 736-598 = 138. It does not matter, when the reform takes effect, as long as it is passed in 2023.