Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2023?
139
1.2K
Dec 1
28%
Sam Altman
15%
ChatGPT
14%
Someone not listed in the rest of the answers at the time that this market closes
14%
The AI
6%
Taylor Swift
5%
Xi Jinping
4%
AI Leaders/Scientists/Researchers
3%
Bibi Netanyahu
2%
Satya Nadella
1.3%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
1.1%
Elon Musk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year

PLEASE! Notice that this question asks about TIME's Person of The Year 2023

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Joshua avatar
Joshua

@itsTomekK how does this resolve if the title is shared between 'Sam Altman and ChatGPT"? Is that 50% Sam, 50% ChatGPT? Or 33% Sam, 33% ChatGPT, 33% "The AI"?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Joshua Do the Sam Altman fanboys call themselves the Altmen?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

@Joshua I guess we'll need to wait for the full announcement, maybe Sam will be on the cover but text will honour all AIs... there might be so many options (last year Zelenskyy (or two years ago?) was also problematic

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

@itsTomekK since this is a parimutuel market, should you have it close before the announcement so that the smart ones of us backing Bibi (since March!) don't get diluted by late bettors after it's announced?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

@AlQuinn Yes, you and @MartinRandall made good point. I update close time to December 1

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

Maybe close the market soon, since it's DPM? Could be worth betting on if it closes early.

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

@MartinRandall What is DPM? I don't like closing markets before the resolving event

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

@itsTomekK If you look at the market type it says "parimutuel", not "fixed". This means that bets made later, eg after the resolving event, can reduce returns to bets made earlier. The only fix for that is to close the market before the resolving event.

New free response markets use a fixed return type and don't have the same problem.

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

Can you see the chart properly?

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

Let's go Bibi! 💪

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnbought Ṁ10 of Bibi Netanyahu

@AlQuinn I guess people stay up all night getting news feeds on Manifold, but here is a cheap place to get exposure to the Israel Hamas thing if things escalate and Bibi manages to take out the trash...

The AI
Duncn avatar
Duncn

@ShakedKoplewitz Does this include all AIs? If ChatGPT is selected, does that count for this option?

dominic avatar

is it possible to buy "not zelenskyy" in some way?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡bought Ṁ25 of Sam Altman

@dominic not yet

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

@RaphaelAlba @NathanpmYoung this is about next year 2023!

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ400 of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Zelensky was chosen for 2022, so he‘s probably not going to be the choice for 2023. My perception is that he’s been in the news less recently, so I’d expect him to be even less prominent in 2023 unless some major changes happen with the war.

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

@Gabrielle They never gave it to someone twice in a row

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ10 of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Are things like "The pope" or "The british PM" fair play here if the holder of that title changes in the next year?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

@ShakedKoplewitz Good question.

It should be NO - we will resolve to the Person of The Year.

If Pope changes, then market should price up the new one... however the previous might still get it., etc.

btw,

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

@LachlanMunro @NickelChen please note this is about 2023 POY, not the sooner 2022 one

LachlanMunro avatar
Lachlan Munrosold Ṁ54 of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

@kolotom99 Oh OK, I did actually misread. Seems very hard to predict then.

NickelChen avatar
Nick el Chen

@kolotom99 Then he will be person of the year two years in a row.

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡

@LachlanMunro Hopefully throughout the year it will get clearer. Can't wait to see movements in this market in 2023