This market will resolve YES if: A triumphal arch is built off one end of the Arlington Bridge, across from the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C The arch is similar to the plans discussed in this article (i.e. around 250 feet in height, similar in design -- plans linked here). I reserve the right to exercise my discretion in determining whether the final arch is sufficiently similar to this plan. Construction is completed by noon on January 20th, 2029, when Trump leaves office. It will resolve NO otherwise, including if an arch is built but its design/size are completely different, it is in a substantially different location, or construction has commenced but is not completed.

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (5 traders, as of Apr 10, 2026).

Will a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office?

This market will resolve YES if:

A triumphal arch is built off one end of the Arlington Bridge, across from the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C
The arch is similar to the plans discussed in this article (i.e. around 250 feet in height, similar in design -- plans linked here). I reserve the right to exercise my discretion in determining whether the final arch is sufficiently similar to this plan.
Construction is completed by noon on January 20th, 2029, when Trump leaves office.

It will resolve NO otherwise, including if an arch is built but its design/size are completely different, it is in a substantially different location, or construction has commenced but is not completed.

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