Last invoked by George H.W. Bush in 1992, the [Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) enables the President to deploy the U.S. military to enforce civil order. According to reporting from the New York Times and Washington Post, Trump intends to invoke the act, possibly as early as his first day in office [1](https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-2025-second-term.html) [2](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/05/trump-revenge-second-term/) [3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025).

This market resolves N/A if Trump is not inaugurated President as a result of the 2024 election. This market resolves YES if Trump invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy the U.S. military for any purpose prior to April 20th, 2025, and resolves NO otherwise. In an unlikely edge case where it is not clear if the act was legally invoked, I will lean towards resolving based on whether or not troops are actually deployed (see clarification in comments https://manifold.markets/kjz/project-2025-if-elected-will-trump#enho0k5vr2n).

• Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market End Time Update:

  • The market now closes at midnight EST rather than midnight PST on the 19th (3 hours earlier).

  • This update removes ambiguity regarding potential early April 20th invocations.