Resolves YES, if the FDP party officially confirmes, that it will leave the current goverment coalition by March 31st 2024, with no room for negotiations. In case it is not clear, I will wait for the official confirmation by the government.
Resolves NO, if they stay in the coalition, it is only threatened as a bargaining chip or they leave after March 2024.
I will not bet on this market.
Context: The Bundesvorstand (federal executive board) of the FDP started a poll of party members asking, whether the party should leave the current coalition. See the question by @sarius below:
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ53 | |
| 2 | Ṁ39 | |
| 3 | Ṁ24 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
@dp9000 Good point. As the spirit of the question is about the FDP leaving the coalition, I would resolve it YES, if the FDP announced or threatened to leave the coalition before the coalition dissolved.
NO, if the government decides to dissolve the coalition due to irreconcilable differences, without the the FDP explicitly threatening to quit.
In case leaving the coalition was "considered" in public by the FDP and later the goverment is dissolved without a clear reference to it, I may resolve it to the best of my knowledge, incorporating media/expert analysis, the community here etc. Most likely NO, if there are a melange of reasons.