Resolution criteria

As of December 2025, Somaliland is recognized as a sovereign state by one UN member state — Israel. This market resolves YES if the UAE formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign nation by January 31, 2026. Resolution requires an official government announcement or statement from the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly granting diplomatic recognition. Acceptance of Somaliland passports or visa system changes alone do not constitute formal recognition.

Background

The UAE accepts Republic of Somaliland passports by listing it in the UAE official e-Channels residency and visa system. The UAE announced that visitors from Somalia will not be granted visas effective from January 2026. Several countries, reportedly including the United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates, are in the final stages of an agreement to grant official recognition to Somaliland. The diplomatic rupture marks an unprecedented low in ties between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi, once Somalia's closest international partner. The UAE notably did not condemn Israel's recognition of Somaliland.

Considerations

One analyst suggested the UAE would probably not be the next country to recognize Somaliland, but would be cautious and allow some African nations to go before it. The UAE has signed a concession agreement to manage the Port of Berbera and operates a military base in the port city of Berbera, which Somaliland's parliament approved in 2017.