Resolution Criteria

As of December 2025, the Republic of Somaliland is recognised as a sovereign state by one UN member state — Israel. The market will resolve to the number of UN member states that have formally recognized Somaliland as an independent state by December 31, 2026. Recognition must be official, as evidenced by formal diplomatic statements or agreements.

Background

Somaliland, a region in the Horn of Africa, declared independence from Somalia in 1991 and has pushed for international recognition for decades. On 26 December 2025, Israel became the first country and United Nations member state to recognise the re-established Somaliland. The Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the African Union (AU), and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) have joined numerous countries and foreign ministers in decrying Israel's formal recognition of the Somali breakaway region of Somaliland as an independent state. A group of 21 mostly Muslim countries – including Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran, as well as the Palestinian Authority – come together to reject in a joint statement Israel's recognition of Somaliland.

Considerations

In 2024, Ethiopia also sought a pact with Somaliland, offering recognition in exchange for sea access for Addis Ababa, but backed down under diplomatic pressure. Trump has distanced himself from close ally Netanyahu on the issue, telling The New York Post newspaper he would not follow Israel's lead. The strong international opposition from major regional and continental organizations, combined with the principle of territorial integrity enshrined in the UN Charter, creates significant diplomatic barriers to additional recognitions.