Will @kazoo (Trent Yazzo) be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?
Basic
7
Ṁ4154
resolved Apr 8
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.

Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.

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Reresolved this

@DavidChee Can we get a fix for this misresolution?

predicted NO

If a banned user can resolve markets what does banned even mean!!!

predicted NO

@Yoav It means they can't create new markets or make comments, but they can still place bets and resolve markets.

"Banned" is definitely not an accurate description of that state. Maybe "muted" would be better.

predicted NO

Heh @Predictor you just barely escaped ruin. :)

@IsaacKing Once a user is banned, there is no incentive for them to resolve anything correctly. This user is a loose cannon, I'm liquidating all my major positions.

@IsaacKing Go look at trent’s early markets. Predictor and yazoo seem to be very closely related. Probably the same person.

predicted NO

@ian Interesting theory. Is there anything pointing to that other than Predictor having made many bets in Trent's early markets?

@IsaacKing No additional evidence besides many of trent’s early markets just being transfers of profit from trent to the only trader, predictor.

predicted NO

FYI further discussion on this is happening here.

"resolves NO if they get banned" — this can resolve now

predicted NO

@a Who's gonna resolve it? :)

predicted NO

I think @ManifoldMarkets should take over banned users’ markets, or at least resolve all of them N/A.

predicted NO

@a Alright, guess my question has been answered.

Trent apparently believes that anything that slightly deviates from extreme far-left science denial is "white supremacy", and that even discussing such topics could be damaging enough to their reputation that they will avoid such discussions. I would not trust them to correctly resolve any market on an emotionally/politically-charged topic.

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/has-scott-alexander-ever-attempted#I6w90jbuiH2pGNYPkYyM

@IsaacKing Do you know anything about how people get badges?

predicted NO

@Alana Austin gives them out on a whim.

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