Russia will create the Union State between Russia and Ukraine before 2027. This is the only criteria.

Crimea will remain russian and Russia will otherwise collapse.

Global capitalism will collapse from peak oil in 2026. Taiwan will be bombarded in 2027 and no chinese ground troops will be sent and it will surrender. 

No microstates  (<10 million pop) will exist. 

All time before 2020 is fake and the universe is stuck in a loop between 2020 and 2025, the era of late capitalism.

The federal government will collapse. Chiraq, NY and CA will be independent. Flyover states will be darwinian shitholes with no government. 