Will an element with an atomic number greater than that of oganesson (118) be synthesized before 2028?
Will an element with an atomic number greater than that of oganesson (118) be synthesized before 2028?
15
1kṀ4252027
48%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will a new element be discovered before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will the periodic table contain more than 118 elements before 2045?
88% chance
Will element 119 “Ununennium” be discovered before 2030?
40% chance
Will octaazacubane (N8) be synthesized before 2028?
51% chance
When a new element be added to the periodic table of elements before the end of 2028?
21% chance
Will element 119 be discovered by the end of 2030?
36% chance
Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2030)
21% chance
When a new element be added to the periodic table of elements before the end of 2040?
62% chance
Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)
49% chance
When a new element be added to the periodic table of elements before the end of 2030?
40% chance