Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2032, 11:59 PM UTC, any element belonging to the hypothetical g-block of the periodic table is successfully synthesized and officially confirmed.

For the purpose of resolution:

• Definition of g-block element: In the standard extended periodic table following the Madelung rule (Glenn Seaborg model), the g-block corresponds to elements with atomic numbers $Z = 121$ through $Z = 138$. Discovery of an element with atomic number $Z \ge 121$ whose ground state or formal classification places it in the g-block will qualify. Note that elements 119 and 120 belong to the s-block (Period 8) and do not qualify.

• Standard of evidence: Synthesis must be verified and officially recognized by the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) and the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics (IUPAP) Joint Working Party (JWP), or announced as a confirmed discovery in a peer-reviewed publication that meets IUPAC/IUPAP criteria for the discovery of a new element before the deadline.

• Unconfirmed claims, preliminary detector events not yet independently verified or peer-reviewed, or computer simulations do not count toward a YES resolution.

• If no g-block element has been confirmed synthesized by the deadline, the market resolves to NO.

Background

The periodic table currently terminates at period 7 with oganesson ($Z = 118$). Under the Aufbau principle and Madelung rule, the eighth period begins with two s-block elements: ununennium ($Z = 119$) and unbinilium ($Z = 120$). The hypothetical g-block begins at atomic number $Z = 121$ (unbiunium), where electrons are theoretically expected to begin filling the 5g subshell.

Major facilities including RIKEN (Japan), the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR, Russia), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (USA) are actively attempting to synthesize elements 119 and 120. Synthesizing elements beyond $Z = 120$ presents immense experimental hurdles, including vanishingly small fusion cross-sections, extremely short half-lives, and the requirement of heavier projectile beams (e.g., titanium or chromium) rather than calcium-48. Reaching $Z \ge 121$ will require significant breakthroughs beyond current next-generation superheavy element beamlines.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.