Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES for any given chemical element if a previously undiscovered isotope of that element is synthesized or observed, and its discovery is published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal or formally recognized by December 31, 2060, at 11:59 PM UTC.

• Primary Sources: Official recognition by the IUPAC/IUPAP Joint Working Party (JWP) or inclusion as a verified nuclide in the National Nuclear Data Center's NuDat database.

• Timing: The effective date of discovery is defined by the submission or publication date of the peer-reviewed research paper establishing the isotope's synthesized decay chain or mass.

• If no new isotopes are confirmed for a listed element by the resolution deadline, that element resolves NO.

• Options may resolve YES prior to 2060 if official confirmation of a new isotope occurs early. Additional elements may be added as options by the market creator.

Background

The superheavy elements at the end of the seventh period (elements 113 through 118: Nihonium, Flerovium, Moscovium, Livermorium, Tennessine, and Oganesson) were first synthesized through heavy-ion fusion reactions at facilities such as the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR), RIKEN, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Only a small number of isotopes exist for each superheavy element, most with extremely short half-lives. Nuclear physicists continue experiments targeting neutron-rich isotopes in an effort to reach the predicted "island of stability"—a theoretical region of the chart of nuclides where superheavy nuclei may exhibit longer half-lives due to closed nuclear shells. Confirmation of new isotopes requires clear physical identification, such as unique alpha-decay chains, cross-bombardment verification, or direct mass spectrometry.

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