On April 17, 2022, will the world population be larger than 4 billion?
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แน1.3Kแน100
resolved Apr 19
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YES1D
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Market will resolve to YES if at least 4 billion people appear to be alive on on April 17th, 2020, 08:59 CET.
Feb 14, 6:08pm: 2022, as in the title*
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I think he's probably just goofing around with conditional probabilities (see: https://manifold.markets/JorisKerkhoff/conditional-on-the-world-population )
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