What fraction of manifold.love users will be women on Feb 20, 2024?
15
310Ṁ242
resolved Feb 21
Resolved as
22%

Resolves to percentage of users who identify as women, if such information becomes available. If platform is not launched by EOY, resolves N/A.

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Made a multiple choice version to capture the full distribution.


Also see @chrisjbillington's shorter term market:

predictedNO

Current gender options are "male", "female", "trans-male", "trans-female" and "non-binary". Presumably you'll sum "female" and "trans-female" to resolve this question? And the denominator will include all users?

Correct. Unless there's a default null gender, in which case I might exclude that.

Actually, I'll probably make a multiple choice version with all the current genders. This one will stay up of course.

@jskf oh nvm you already did

predictedNO

Lemme know if you want a Python script to do the counting for this one and I'll share

Would be nice. I think I'll also clone your market after all, with the same end date as this one.

predictedNO

@jskf Here you go: https://gist.github.com/chrisjbillington/35f673f594fd635b868b4cb716a34bfb
And in case you don't get a chance on Feb 20th, you can filter by lover['created_time'] to only include accounts that were created before Feb 21st or whatnot.

as @MartinRandall pointed out on the main market, there could be a spike of (new) users on the 14th. Would anyone object to me moving the end date for this market back a few days in order to include these potential users?

Pushed back to Feb 20 since nobody objected.

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