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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ212 | |
| 2 | Ṁ125 | |
| 3 | Ṁ18 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 |
Looks to me like there are several lessons that can be drawn from this market.
"Will X happen by Y time" is ambiguous when X is a world state rather than a discrete event. If X begins happening before time Y, but the state X is not still in existence at time Y, it's unclear how the market should resolve. Market creators should be clear about this up front, and if they're not, traders should ask for clarification.
In this market, a trader did ask for clarification several weeks ago, and was given such. However, that clarification was not added to the description, so other traders could see it. Market creators should be including the relevant information in their descriptions, not buried down in a comment thread.
The clarification given was "Final stock number of Dan when this market closes determine the results." This market closed on Feb 14 at 23:59 Pacific Time. At that time, the Dan stock market was at 80%, which can be verified by going to that market and zooming in on that graph. This market was therefore pretty clearly resolved incorrectly. I don't think this was due to outright malice on @johnleoks's part, but rather laziness and a lack of concern for proper resolution. John then refused to take responsibility for their error and falsely claimed that this market was resolved correctly, presumably in an effort to save face. Traders should take this into account when viewing John's future markets, and perhaps consider betting in the markets of more reliable creators instead.
Lastly, while no one brought this up here, I want to mention it for future reference: There is also some ambiguity about what it means for a market to be "at 80%". The displayed probability is rounded, so it's possible for a market to display 80%, but actually be at 80.1%, which could be interpreted as "above 80%". The exact percentage can be accessed via the API, but there's no easy way to access it in the web interface. This issue clearly wasn't the cause of the confusion in this market, but it's something to be aware of for future markets.
@IsaacKing I completely agree, I'm more just confused why he didn't take blame. I don't anyone would've been upset he just said: "hey guys sorry for misresolve, I didn't notice blah blah blah...to make up for it here's a manalink for everyone who lost on this."
Guess I have 470 bucks I shouldn't have now. Here is a refund for the YES-betters who were to slow for @DesTiny's link: https://manifold.markets/link/YNbY9Pmg.
Dang how is this even allowed? Making a mistake is one thing but doubling down and profiting while being caught in 4k is wild
@DesTiny thank you for the offer friend! But this isn’t your fault, I’ll win the mana back on your fair markets
Honestly the worst part is that I stayed up until 2am buying No stock on Dan, when everyone clearly knows Dan is the man
@Cheddar Easy. I wake up, check any markets that require resolving, and if no one posts screenshots of whatever metric the market goes by at the time of closing, I simply look at what the current metric figure is and move on. That's all it is. The thought of you people thinking I would care enough to intentionally resolve this in my favor to make a 200 profit when I have 40k unused mana does make me chuckle though.
@johnleoks One could argue that you didn’t do it for the mana itself but for profit as your profit is rather bad. Also you could use the excuse of you misresolving because you have a lot of markets to check on in the morning and you’re usually tired and stuff, but I think the only reason anyone is upset is the fact you doubled down that you had 0 responsibility to make sure the market was resolved correctly. Maybe you can add a bit in the description stating “resolving no unless a screenshot is shown,” and in that case it might be alright. Ok bye
@johnleoks Nobody thinks you were acting maliciously, but when you make a market you take responsibility for it being resolved correctly. If you don't want that responsibility, don't create the market.
It's like being the parent of a child or the CEO of a company, you take responsibility even if it's not your fault, because that's the role you chose and that's part of the role.
Just refund @Cheddar and the story is over. Everybody else here should be able to get their mana back via my manalink or @DesTiny's
