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MANIFOLD
Will the next VOC have equal or more severe symptoms than omicron?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
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Does this resolve no if there are no new VOC or N/A? In the latter case, this is a bit trivial I feel
@JoyVoid I'll resolve NO if there's no VOC by the end of the year
I suspect that we are more likely to discover/name/hear about variants with more dangerous effects more quickly than those without, so that may affect the odds. What definition of variant are we using? There are plenty of unnamed variants, but if we are looking specifically at those given names by the WHO, that greatly increases the chance that they are the worst of the worst.