Will the cop who shot Nahel M. be found guilty of homicide?

Question

France is seeing civil unrest across many cities since Tuesday 2023-06-27 as a policeman shot Nahel, a 17yo who was driving without a licence in Nanterre (Paris suburb):

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/world/europe/france-riots-nahel-shooting.html

The policeman who shot his gun was just placed in custody and charged with homicide volontaire (first degree murder):

https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/faits-divers-justice/mort-de-nahel-a-nanterre-le-policier-auteur-du-tir-est-mis-en-examen-et-place-en-detention-provisoire-6108318

This market resolves YES if the first court who judges the case concludes guilty of murder (voluntary or not), resolves NO if deemed innocent (regardless of reason, e.g. in case of non-lieu).

[link preview]

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (48 traders, as of Jul 22, 2026).