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MANIFOLD
Will Anthropic's next ARR figure show an accelerating % growth rate?
37
Ṁ250Ṁ5.6k
resolved May 29
Resolved
NO
42

Resolution Criteria

Resolves based off of epoch data.

Resolves YES if Anthropic's Compounded Monthly Growth Rate (CMGR) between Apr 6 and the next data point is greater than the baseline:

The Baseline (Jan 1, 2026 – April 6, 2026):

  • Start ARR: $9 Billion (Dec. 31, 2025)

  • End ARR: $30 Billion (April 6, 2026)

  • Duration: 3.17 months (96 days)

  • Baseline CMGR: 45.9% per month > Formula: [(30/9)(1/3.17)−1]×100

Resolves NO otherwise.

Market context
AI
Technology
OpenAI
Stocks
Anthropic
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OK i'll carry out the calculation now

@jim It's close but

all sensible consistent methods resolve NO

If I didn’t fuck up the calculation it looks like the new EPOCH data point of $47B at May 14th just barely registers as a deceleration.

Of course outside of this market it’s yet more confirmation that the insane trends are continuing at pace.

🤖

AI forecast card:

bought Ṁ30 YES

"earlier this month" 🤔

bought Ṁ500 NO

So "earlier this month" = May 14. Can be resolved @jim

@Simon74fe do you have a source for that or is that a guess

@Bayesian the link in the market description has Epoch using the $47B on May 14th figure

bought Ṁ50 NO

This seems to imply declining growth rate

bought Ṁ300 YES

44B reported by SemiAnalysis https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/ai-value-capture-the-shift-to-model
If this is accurate then market should resolve Yes

@Simon74fe if this data point is added to the Epoch data then this market will resolve as 'yes'.

@Simon74fe the correct play here was probably to try to bait Bayesian into putting a large limit order up for 'no' then filling it

bought Ṁ150 NO

come on traders let’s be reasonable here

@Bayesian bayesian declares AI plateau imminent

@jim Amusing that Bayesian looks like he’ll make profit on this market despite the Jim outlook being “spiritually right” in this instance ;P

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