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MANIFOLD
Will Anthropic's next ARR figure show an accelerating % growth rate?
26
Ṁ250Ṁ1.6k
May 19
89%
chance

Resolution Criteria

Resolves based off of epoch data.

Resolves YES if Anthropic's Compounded Monthly Growth Rate (CMGR) between Apr 6 and the next data point is greater than the baseline:

The Baseline (Jan 1, 2026 – April 6, 2026):

  • Start ARR: $9 Billion (Dec. 31, 2025)

  • End ARR: $30 Billion (April 6, 2026)

  • Duration: 3.17 months (96 days)

  • Baseline CMGR: 45.9% per month > Formula: [(30/9)(1/3.17)−1]×100

Resolves NO otherwise.

Market context
AI
Technology
OpenAI
Anthropic
Stocks
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bought Ṁ300 YES

44B reported by SemiAnalysis https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/ai-value-capture-the-shift-to-model
If this is accurate then market should resolve Yes

@Simon74fe if this data point is added to the Epoch data then this market will resolve as 'yes'.

@Simon74fe the correct play here was probably to try to bait Bayesian into putting a large limit order up for 'no' then filling it

bought Ṁ150 NO

come on traders let’s be reasonable here

@Bayesian bayesian declares AI plateau imminent

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