When will we get the first successful video game that uses vid gen instead of a traditional engine?
11
175Ṁ1190
2027
February 11, 2028
4%
2025
21%
2026
17%
2027
30%
2028
23%
2029
5%
2030

A game like this that sees decent popularity (e.g. becomes a best seller, or gets 10k concurrent players on Steam, or makes 50 million in sales)

https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1kuh1mt/are_we_entering_the_generative_gaming_era/

resolves to the date it meets jim's subjective criteria of success (rather than e.g. the date it was first released)

playable example of a game that uses vidgen-type tech instead of a traditional engine:

https://oasis-ai.org/

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i think that there's too much probability mass on 2028 when this is not reflected in higher probabilities on 2027 / 2029

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 15% order

progress: odyssey.world

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 35% order

Cautious NO limit orders on 2026, small mostly because of how the 1 million downloads market was resolved.

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