When will we get the first successful video game that uses vid gen instead of a traditional engine?
8
175Ṁ820
2027
April 21, 2026
35%
2025
58%
2026
2%
2027
1.7%
2028
1.7%
2029
1.2%
2030

A game like this that sees decent popularity (e.g. becomes a best seller, or gets 10k concurrent players on Steam, or makes 50 million in sales)

https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1kuh1mt/are_we_entering_the_generative_gaming_era/

resolves to the date it meets jim's subjective criteria of success (rather than e.g. the date it was first released)

playable example of a game that uses vidgen-type tech instead of a traditional engine:

https://oasis-ai.org/

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 15% order

progress: odyssey.world

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 35% order

Cautious NO limit orders on 2026, small mostly because of how the 1 million downloads market was resolved.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy