Will an AI be able to generate a high-quality, fully-functional video game to a prompt by market close?
Example:
An AI receiving the prompt “Create a complete, high-quality, rogue-like deckbuilding video game set in a dystopian future where humans and robots are at war.” should be able to handle all aspects of game creation from this prompt alone, resulting in a fully functional, high-quality video game.
Specifications:
For the purpose of this market:
AI-Generated Video Game: Refers to a complete and functional video game created by an AI without human intervention in the creative process. This includes game design, mechanics, graphics, sound, and coding.
High-Quality: The game should be comparable in quality and complexity to a mid to high-budget video game produced by humans in the same period. It should have a coherent plot, well-designed game mechanics, professional-level graphics and sound, and be largely free of bugs and glitches.
Fully-Functional: The game should be playable from start to finish, offering a complete gaming experience. Should be capable of making experiences that have playtimes comparable to human generated titles.
Conditions:
AI Generation: The AI should develop the game autonomously, including game design, storyline development, character creation, world-building, coding, and testing. Similar to how Midjourney generates a completed image, this AI should generate a completed game.
Verification: At least three reputable industry experts OR MYSELF must verify the AI's ability to handle game quality, functionality, and prompt robustness without human intervention.
Release: The AI doesn't need to publish the game to a store (ex: sell the game, create marketing copy, or deal with storefronts), we are just looking at creating the game.
Resolution:
The market will resolve as “YES” if a game meeting the above criteria is confirmed by market close. If no such game is confirmed by this date, or if the game does not meet all the specified criteria, the market will resolve as “NO”.
- I will NOT bet in this market.
- In the event that a technical anomaly or unforeseen issue leads to a discrepancy between the literal text and the intended meaning (spirit) of the question, the resolution of this market will align with the underlying intent of the question, ensuring the most fair and accurate outcome.
Related questions
@firstuserhere I've learned to not bet against technology progress on timespans this big
@firstuserhere brave! considering that games are a meld of our technological progress and all known artforms and therefore require some expertise in all of it (at least for mid-to-high budget games), I suspect this requires at least AGI, if not more. This is especially true once you consider that the bar for quality moves as tech progresses in the future and developer capabilities get stronger alongside it. So is this a bet that we'll have AGI+ by then?
@Stralor It's for 2050, which is so far out that there's no reasonable discussion from current standards. Maybe AI turns out to be bust, or maybe we get an AGI. I suspect that the current amount of funding going into the field and the amount of people working on AI increasing is a sign that either we get something approaching AGI by 2035ish, or we get signs that the problem is far more difficult than anticipated