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MANIFOLD
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 80% by what year?
4
Ṁ625Ṁ862
2035
76%
EOY 2026
83%
EOY 2027
83%
EOY 2028
83%
EOY 2029
89%
EOY 2030

Resolves YES for all true values, so if the score is reached in 2027 then everything except EOY 2026 will resolve YES. I will use Scale's leaderboard, or published scores from reputable sources if they're not on the leaderboard.

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In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?
2029
When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 60% by what year?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 70% by what year?
In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 90% by what year?
In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
+24% 1d53% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
+8% 1d69% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
+3% 1d87% chance