Will Manifold provide a visible & trusted source of randomness by the end of 2023?

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resolved Jan 1

Resolved

NO

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Some market mechanisms (say, lotteries) require a verifiable, reproducible, and visible source of randomness that cannot be tampered with or predicted. Will Manifold provide one in-house before the end of 2023?

Resolution conditions:

A RNG that resolves after a market closes counts as YES. An API-only feature doesn't count (not visible). The feature does not need to be integrated with specific markets. It can be centralized (e.g., registry of timestamped RNG seeds). Third-party solutions don't count (e.g., bots like @FairlyRandom).

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Do they have to build their own, or would integrating an external source of randomness into the platform count?

@JustNo i think this would qualify, as long as it's pretty clear that it is official.

The existence of FairlyRandom makes this unlikely imo. No need for manifold to build their own stuff.

If you haven't tried it out yet, @FairlyRandom does a really good job of this!

(though it's not a first-party one so wouldn't count for the purposes of this market)

@Austin good point! Editing the question to reflect the third party requirement.

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