Will Manifold do a crypto airdrop before Jan 1st, 2028?

321Ṁ2684

2028

31%

chance

ALL

How they might do a crypto airdrop I'll leave up to the imagination.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Manifold launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by Jan 1st, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" as long as the intention is to make them fungible at a later date.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Manifold team.

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bought Ṁ500 NO

Convenient property this market has: if they do, some people will not want anything to do with Manifold anymore, which makes mana worthless to them, so there's zero downside to betting NO.

Can we change the title to "crypto airdrop"? It looks like some people were confused by the mana airdrop and thought this should resolve YES already.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yeah, It would have been a clever rules cuck, but I had "crypto airdrop" in the description and various other crypto references so can't really go that way.

@Joshua Bit of an overbet :( But the bots are leaving you alone. Guess it's probably accurate.

@gpt_news_headlines The bots stopped trading against me a long time ago, and then they started copying my trades. If they're just ignoring me now my calibration must be getting worse.