Will BrierFoxForecast surpass Manifold's 7d avg DAU count by the end of 2025
25
12k
2026
9%
chance

The current address of Brier Fox Forecast: https://brierfoxforecast.ngrok.app/

'Manifold' pertains to manifold.markets or any website maintaining the Manifold branding following M&A. It must be managed either by Manifold's original founders or a team in continuity with the original team. So, for instance, if a larger platform acquires Manifold and integrates its users but abandons its branding and concept, it won't be considered as "Manifold" under this definition, and I will count this as 0 DAU. The same criteria apply to the competitor.

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What is the definition of, "in continuity with the original team," ? Seems like one might already argue that Manifold has to a certain extent, "abandoned," its concept, though not its branding, by pivoting to a bimetalism pure money platform rather than a pure gaming points platform. So if a larger platform acquires Manifold at this point and changes the brand name, given that there was already a pivot since the market was created, does this market then push the DAU count back to 0?

Also, what if someone then goes and takes an open source version of Manifold and then re-launches Manifold under a previous concept and people join, though it's an independent, completely new Manifold (although obviously could be the same users)? Would this now be, "New Manifold," and not count for the market resolution or would it still count as, "Original Manifold," for the purposes of comparing to BrierFox?

@PatrickDelaney Another question...what if BrierFox ends up using an open source version of Manifold as its engine? Do those users get subsumed into the count for Manifold, making Manifold always win by default if that happens?

Different market on related topic, referring to socialpredict, the software underlying BrierFox. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-socialpredict-be-run-by-two-pu

reposted

Updated this market post launch.

The N/A option (the competitor not launching) has been removed.

Updating this. Would you call the website "Brier Fox Forecast" or "Social Predict" @BTE @PatrickDelaney

Manifold's success seems like an outlier in its reference class and it also took 2 years to go from "team working full time" to "current DAU." I know nothing about BTE's background or ideas but my prior on someone's new unaffiliated prediction market website beating Manifold so quickly is very low.

predicts NO

Also they don't have a plausible theory for why their version would be better even if the software was at parity.

Will you track DAU as openly/explicitly as Manifold @BTE?

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