Will LLMs be able to solve this simple intransitive urn game by the end of 2023.
11
230Ṁ1332
resolved Jan 15
Resolved
NO

Consider the following re-write of an intransitive dice game:

Alice and Bob have three urns filled with six numbered bingo balls each.

The distribution of balls is as follows:
1) Urn 1 has balls numbered [2, 2, 4, 4, 9, 9]
2) Urn 2 has balls numbered [1, 1, 6, 6, 8, 8]
3) Urn 3 has balls numbered [3, 3, 5, 5, 7, 7]

Alice proposes the following wager to Bob: Each player will pick an urn to draw from, with Alice picking first, and Bob picking second.

Next, each player randomly selects one ball from their chosen urn via a blind draw.

Whichever player selects the larger number will win. Alice selects first. Who has better odds?

ChatGPT seems to struggle with this problem. This market resolves Yes if any LLM can reliably and coherently provide a solution to this problem before the end of 2023.

Notes: Question re-writes are allowed, so long as they add no new information. Prompt engineering is also allowed, so long as it adds no new information.

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