Will an LLM be able to solve Raven's Progressive Matrices from an image in 2025? | Manifold

Will an LLM be able to solve Raven's Progressive Matrices from an image in 2025?

14

100Ṁ477

Dec 31

65%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The prompt will be "Solve this. Explain your answer" with an RPM attached as an image. For example:

The AI must be able to solve 8 out of 10 puzzles of my choosing. I will only choose puzzles that I can solve.

If there's a consensus that chatbots can/can't do this I may not bother doing the test myself.

As of market creation the best commercially available LLMs fail embarrassingly:
Chatgpt 4o:
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/solve-this-explain-your-answer-ohIVE8CaQ3OIu9ODzaEXcg

Claude Sonnet 1.5:
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/solve-this-explain-your-answer-Ay.Kpyc9Tfm6uKBT3KUylQ

Rules:
- Must be an general purpose ai, can't be something made specifically to solve certain kinds of problems.
- I will not bet.

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Related questions

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will LLMs such as GPT4 be considered a solution to Moravec’s paradox by 2030?

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