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MANIFOLD
Will an AI-designed drug candidate report positive Phase 3 results before the end of 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5
2027
48%
chance

Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, a company announces positive topline Phase 3 results for a drug whose molecule was discovered or designed primarily with AI (for example candidates from Insilico Medicine, Isomorphic Labs, Recursion, Exscientia or Generate Biomedicines). The company or a major outlet (Nature, STAT, Reuters, Endpoints) has to describe the drug as AI-discovered or AI-designed. Repurposed existing drugs do not count.

Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case. Its 2027 best-case list included "AI-designed drugs reach late-stage trials; regulators build a fast lane." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored. The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case

The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case
The ten-year AI forecast the novel Two Lives grew out of. Ten points a year, both columns, with its confidence for each year.
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