Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

1.4kṀ8873

2029

54%

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ALL

If a proper study is conducted, will resolve based on that. Otherwise, the resolver will attempt collect data to resolve the market. Resolution will be based on the informed judgement of the resolver about what best fits the intent. Resolver is me by default, or the manifold moderation team if my resolution is disputed. In the absence of a well-conducted study, the estimate will necessarily be imperfect.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

The treatment is meant to reduce dental acid by replacing S. mutans.
I've asked multiple AI models to estimate how much oral acid production is due to S. mutans, and they come up with intervals like 30-50%, 35-58%, 10-30%. There isn't good quantitative data, and there are other variables like how localized the acid is, whether it's beneath a biofilm, etc. That said, it seems very plausible to me that this treatment would reduce dental decay.

I would personally not take this, even though I'm very willing to take experimental treatments. This is an irreversible medical treatment with no safety data and the upside is very limited. Would be very excited about a good trial though. FDA made this too difficult to trial

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Lots of potential confounders here. I'd definitely be below 50% if there was a RCT, but I'm not expecting high-quality data to be available.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Does the study need to be independent?

If lumina conducts the study is it sufficient for them to claim this reduction in cavities or otherwise what information about their study is required to resolve Yes?