Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application? | Manifold

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Plus

84

Ṁ8793

2029

55%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If a proper study is conducted, will resolve based on that. Otherwise, the resolver will attempt collect data to resolve the market. Resolution will be based on the informed judgement of the resolver about what best fits the intent. Resolver is me by default, or the manifold moderation team if my resolution is disputed. In the absence of a well-conducted study, the estimate will necessarily be imperfect.

Feel free to suggest improved criteria

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Lots of potential confounders here. I'd definitely be below 50% if there was a RCT, but I'm not expecting high-quality data to be available.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Does the study need to be independent?

If lumina conducts the study is it sufficient for them to claim this reduction in cavities or otherwise what information about their study is required to resolve Yes?

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Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

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Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?

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