Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Question

Lantern Bioworks says they have a cure for tooth decay. Their product is a genetically modified bacterium which infects your mouth, outcompetes all the tooth-decay-causing bacteria, and doesn’t cause tooth decay itself. If it works, it could make cavities a thing of the past (you should still brush for backup and cosmetic reasons).

Is this true?

The options in this market are based on Scott Alexander's latest post about Lantern Bioworks, in which he says:

My real opinion, as precisely as I can express it, is:

Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride: 5%

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments: 35%

Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does: 10%

Doesn’t work at all and never will: 50%

Causes minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol: 30%

Causes medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics: 5%

Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide: <1%

These possibilities are all independent options in this market. If I am personally convinced that an option is true/untrue and am certain enough that I would make a real money bet on it at extreme odds, that option resolves YES/NO here accordingly.

So this market depends on my judgement, but notably I am a longtime reader of Scott Alexander and I trust him quite a bit. So if Scott writes a post saying that that these things are true or untrue, I am very likely to believe him. If you can convince Scott, or Zvi for that matter, you have likely convinced me.

I am very skeptical by default of anything claiming to be as amazing as Lumina, but I think that even a small chance that it is that good makes it well worth pursuing. I have previously traded in some Lantern Bioworks markets, but after making this market I intend to buy no more shares in those markets. I will not buy any shares in this market.

[image]I will try to check in on the latest evidence regularly, and if it seems like we may never know the truth of an option I may decide to resolve it N/A.

I am prepared to wait several years for good data if necessary, but my hope is that some of the more extreme scenarios here will be resolvable sooner than that. The resolution date will be moved out as necessary.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Doesn’t work at all and never will, followed by Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments and Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol are most likely. See the market for live updates (114 traders, as of Aug 24, 2026).