Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030
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5
Ṁ144
2029
14%
chance

"Mostly close" means within 5%. data source: probably this https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881900Q vs this https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252882800Q though if that doesn't mean what I think it does might change

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@NoaNabeshima Improved 2% in last 20 years. No reason to think it'll go up 13% in 8 years.

predicts NO

Agree. The opposing arguments of sorts are, i think (This is from a redpiller destiny was debating) "Women are doing better in high school, college, and secondary education than men", which seems to be informed by "modern society is feminized and is harsh on men but easier for women to navigate".

predicts NO

@jacksonpolack Is there data on this being a new thing?

predicts NO

a right wing take on that is "men tend to take independent and risky action, women tend to follow what's high status - this is a "status inversion", like how poor people still smoked after it became gauche among rich and a harbinger of society moving on from universities"

im not sure that works, because colleges are still both exclusive credentialing institutions and have a practical hold on training and knowledge for a variety important technical careers. idk

predicts NO

i dont think that makes sense, even if it was true the men who aren't going to college in population statistics aren't disproportionately high status or something. maybe more risky/independent behavior = men go to college less - but that's a mistake?

even then the increasing female college completion rate isn't showing up in the wage gap! based on this, there seems to be a within-cohort age effect, and a slow between-cohort decrease in the wage gap. but the decrease is not that fast

that second trade was within five seconds? wow