Relative earnings defined as the ratio of earnings between people with a bachelors degree vs high school graduates with no college. 1.768 at the time of posting based on Q4 2022 data.
Employed full time: Median usual weekly nominal earnings (second quartile): Wage and salary workers: Bachelor's degree and higher: 25 years and over, Dollars, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted.
Employed full time: Median usual weekly nominal earnings (second quartile): Wage and salary workers: High School graduates, no college: 25 years and over, Dollars, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Clarification 5/23/26 9:18 AM EDT:
My intent is not to resolve yes on a single noisy quarterly dip. Instead, I will resolve this based on whether college premium has made a sustained move downward after q4 2022. Yes will only resolve if 4-quarter trailing average ratio falls below q4 2022 baseline (1.768).
Update 2026-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on a 4-quarter trailing average ratio rather than any single quarterly data point. YES will only resolve if the 4-quarter trailing average falls below the Q4 2022 baseline of 1.768. Single quarterly dips below this value are considered noise and will not trigger resolution.
Update 2026-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve Yes if any 4-quarter rolling average of the ratio falls below the Q4 2022 baseline of 1.768 at any point before 2030 (not just the value on January 1, 2030).
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@Mochi nvm I see there is a calculation you need to compute to get the number. Then I assume we are talking about 2030 value compared to 2022 value? Otherwise we have already hit this value below this number several times
@Mochi It is a good point. I have updated description to resolve based on 4 quarter rolling average instead. The points below q4 2022 are clearly noise rather than a trend.
@TommyEagle is that any any point before 2030? Or will you resolve based on 1 Jan 2030 value?