The article: How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline

I will randomly select a subset of participants to form a survey panel. Make a trade or like the market to be eligible to be selected. At a future point in time, they will answer the following poll question:

What is your credence (the probability of your belief) that Seymour Hersh's account is largely accurate?

Resolves to the median poll response in 1 year, or when sufficient evidence to confirm or disconfirm the account has come out (as judged by myself and the survey panel), whichever is earlier.

Context

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Hersh

Hersh first gained recognition in 1969 for exposing the My Lai Massacre and its cover-up during the Vietnam War, for which he received the 1970 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. During the 1970s, Hersh covered the Watergate scandal for The New York Times and revealed the clandestine bombing of Cambodia. In 2004, he reported on the U.S. military's mistreatment of detainees at Abu Ghraib prison. He has also won two National Magazine Awards and five George Polk Awards. In 2004, he received the George Orwell Award.[7]

However... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Hersh#Use_of_anonymous_sources

There has been sustained criticism of Hersh's use of anonymous sources.[66][72][73][26] Critics, including Edward Jay Epstein and Amir Taheri, say he is over-reliant on them.[66][72][73]

In response to an article in The New Yorker in which Hersh alleged that the U.S. government was planning a strike on Iran, U.S. Defense Department spokesman Bryan G. Whitman said, "This reporter has a solid and well-earned reputation for making dramatic assertions based on thinly sourced, unverifiable anonymous sources."[74]

https://www.vox.com/2015/5/11/8584473/seymour-hersh-osama-bin-laden

Hersh's story is amazing to read, alleging a vast American-Pakistani conspiracy to stage the raid and even to fake high-level diplomatic incidents as a sort of cover. But his allegations are largely supported only by two sources, neither of whom has direct knowledge of what happened, both of whom are retired, and one of whom is anonymous. The story is riven with internal contradictions and inconsistencies.

The story simply does not hold up to scrutiny — and, sadly, is in line with Hersh's recent turn away from the investigative reporting that made him famous into unsubstantiated conspiracy theories.

Motivation for this poll method is so that the selected respondents can potentially spend more time reading up about it, and less just based on people's initial impressions.

(If you have thoughts/feedback/suggestions on how best to run a question like this, please let me know!)

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