Update: new 1 year poll is live! This poll https://forms.gle/A8iPjmNX4ZQz8zht5 asks participants: "What do you believe was the probability that SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse?

Resolution

In 1 year (November 2023), I will create another instance of the same poll. Resolves to the average (mean) poll response at that time.

Motivation

In the immediate days after the FTX collapse, a lot of people have quickly concluded that it was willful fraud (e.g. that FTX intentionally loaned out customer deposits which they had committed not to). With the limited information available early on, I believe there is substantial but far from conclusive evidence in favor of this, and that the evidence and information is rapidly changing, and that many people are jumping to conclusions too quickly. You can find a copy of a post I made on this topic at https://manifold.markets/post/in-defense-of-sbf#jIGvMdkFDKDltmegirwJ tl;dr: FTX's failure to hold customer deposits as fully backed deposits seems like it could very plausibly be a combination of bad judgement, terrible accounting practices, and mistakes rather than fraud. I'm not claiming it's likely, just claiming that it's not beyond a reasonable doubt.

This market is an attempt to quantify the degree of certainty the community has on this question. Many people have been acting as if it is basically 100%, while a seemingly smaller minority believes it is substantially less. This is a type of prediction quesiton, and of course we can resolve different predictions by making a market on it.

Notes

• Poll responses must be honest. Do not attempt to manipulate the poll - if I suspect manipulation then I reserve the right to restrict the poll to reputable Manifold users or resolve N/A.

• I am aware that this poll would likely be highly subject to selection bias. I am considering some ideas to mitigate this in another variant of this question; let me know if you have suggestions.

• Poll means a literal poll where you answer with a probability, it does not mean a market.

• I chose 1 year somewhat arbitrarily. I could also create a version of this that settles when I or the community judge that no more significant evidence is likely to arise.

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