Resolves YES if by the end of February 2023, kinetic military action takes place between North Korean and US armed forces, causing at least 1 fatality. Resolves NO otherwise.
Background
US and South Korean intelligence expect North Korea could conduct its 7th nuclear test at any time - see https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-422f66ae0107. US and South Korean forces are currently conducting military exercises, and North and South Korea have exchanged warning shots - https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/23/korea-warning-shots-sea-border-00063072.
Resolution details
Kinetic military action is defined as one involving gunfire or explosives - which does include strikes by drones, aircraft, missiles, artillery, etc. Cyberattacks would not count towards question resolution. I will use resolution criteria of similar Metaculus questions such as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/russia-and-non-us-nato-clash-by-2024/.
Determination of which armed forces were combatants and whether it caused at least one fatality will be based on reliable media reporting. If the identity of the combatants is not known with certainty, it counts if my reading of the consensus reporting indicates at least 90% credence that it was.
Related
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
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South Korea sent drones across the border into North Korea for the first time on Monday, an unprecedented tit-for-tat military move after Kim Jong Un’s regime dispatched five unmanned aerial vehicles into its air space.
"We think they're ready to go. Kim just has to give the thumbs up," a senior U.S. State Department official told CBS News.
South Korean intelligence assesses that North Korea may conduct the test on the cusp of the upcoming Nov. 8 U.S. midterm elections.
Potential military responses are likely to include more exercises in the region. A Pentagon report issued on Thursday stated: "The Department will continue to deter attacks through forward posture; integrated air and missile defense; close coordination and interoperability with our ROK (Republic of Korea) Ally; nuclear deterrence; resilience initiatives; and the potential for direct cost imposition approaches that come from globally deployable Joint Forces."
