Resolves NO if before June 1 (Eastern time), the US raises or suspends the debt ceiling.

Resolves NO if the US defaults on its debt in 2023.

Resolves YES otherwise (if the US neither raises the debt before June ceiling nor defaults in 2023).

This question is intended to help answer: "If the US fails to raise the debt ceiling before June 1, how likely is default?". See also https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b#NCK95nCmDyevr09h9JvA

Definitions:

• Raising or suspending the debt ceiling is defined the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised

• Default is defined the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-government-default-on-i

Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of May 2023?

52% chance. Experts and government sources agree that the “x date” where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months. At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly…