This market will resolve to YES if any of the following occur before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025:
1. The U.S. Treasury fails to make a scheduled payment of principal or interest on any U.S. Treasury securities on time and in full
2. Any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, or Fitch) declares the U.S. to be in default
3. The U.S. Treasury announces it will miss or delay any scheduled payment on Treasury securities
The market will resolve to NO if none of the above occurs before the specified deadline
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Raided the market to 30% and limit order for more.
Mostly here to understand. Why are others convinced the odds are much lower with the erratic logic of the POTUS?
@Flekkie to make myself a little more clear, the scenario I worry about and I see as higher likelihood thank often discussed is additional erratic behaviour of the POTUS in any way is combined with a rumour or bluff (from Trump) that the US would default on their debts.
This kicking off a distrust cycle of bond selloffs and interest spikes, eventually leading to a self fulfilling prophecy and debt default
@Flekkie The time window on this question is tight for a high probability; consider my related market https://manifold.markets/nonnihil/technical-default-on-us-treasury-de , similar question but the full presidential term, is only trading at thirty, so it would be odd if this one were that high.
@Flekkie govt default is like the end of the American economy. They are not that stupid and there's no need for it. We are not in great fiscal shape (fixable but structural problems, though not as bad as Japan). But a default will not happen