Will the United States default on its sovereign debt obligations by December 31, 2025?
15
100Ṁ2591
2026
5%
chance

This market will resolve to YES if any of the following occur before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025:

1. The U.S. Treasury fails to make a scheduled payment of principal or interest on any U.S. Treasury securities on time and in full

2. Any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, or Fitch) declares the U.S. to be in default

3. The U.S. Treasury announces it will miss or delay any scheduled payment on Treasury securities

The market will resolve to NO if none of the above occurs before the specified deadline

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