Resolves YES if the US federal government defaults on its debt or fails to pay its bills on time in 2023 in a non-technical manner. Otherwise NO.

Here debt is not just Treasury bond debt, but also US government obligations like Social Security, Medicare, military spending, etc. So if any form of "payment prioritization" is triggered, that would be a YES:

Yellen said Friday that any failure to pay a government bill would constitute a debt default

A "technical default" (a delay to payments for technical reasons not indicative of its ability or willingness to repay debt) does not count as YES. For example:

• The US failing to pay obligations on time because of running out of money because of the debt ceiling is YES. Even missing the deadline to pay debt by a single day is sufficient.

• If the US pays debt late because of computer problems, but there was enough money to pay it and the issue is quickly corrected, that is a "technical default" and not a YES. (This happened to US treasuries in the 1979.)

See https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign-default.asp for what I mean by "technical default", which would not count as YES.

If a country briefly delays interest payments for a few of its bonds for technical reasons not indicative of its ability or willingness to repay debt, as the U.S. Treasury did once in the 1970s, it might have technically defaulted for a time. So long as the repayment snag is quickly ironed out, such a "default" is unlikely to have any long-term consequences, or to be widely viewed as one.

See also this market on a default on Treasury bond debt specifically: