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Will the US designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism in 2022?
20
Ṁ240Ṁ4.6k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if the US designates Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, as listed on https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/ in 2022. Resolves NO otherwise.

Background: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/07/politics/biden-russia-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-cnntv/index.html

The US State Department is responsible for designating nations as state sponsors of terrorism. The department defines the designation as a country that has "repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism." There are only four countries that are currently labeled state sponsors of terrorism by the US: North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Syria.

In July, the Senate passed a nonbinding resolution calling on the State Department to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. And in April, a senior administration official said department officials were looking at the possibility of labeling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/08/18/state-shares-fears-about-russia-terrorism-bill-with-congress-00052626

In July, Speaker NANCY PELOSI told Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN that if he didn’t put Russia on the terrorism blacklist, then Congress would. Since then, the Senate unanimously passed a non-binding resolution urging Blinken to do so, followed by a bipartisan quintet of House members introducing a bill that would officially slap the designation on Russia — circumventing the nation’s top diplomat.

To date, State officials haven’t openly said anything for or against the House measure, except to insist the ultimate decision rests solely with Blinken and note that current U.S.-imposed sanctions and export controls on Russia are nearly equivalent to what the bill would mandate.

But multiple people familiar with the conversations told NatSec Daily that agency officials in recent days have relayed to congressional offices their serious problems with the legislation.

Resolution fine print:

  • Resolution is by official government designation as communicated on https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/

  • This means if Congress passes legislation to designate Russia, it counts as long as the State department adds it to the list.

  • In the event this URL is unusable, an equivalent page or equivalent official government announcement will be used for resolution.

  • In the unlikely event the page lists Russia for any reason other than official US policy, e.g. hack or accidental change, as determined based on official government statements and/or reliable media reports, that will not cause YES resolution.

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It's odd that invading a sovereign state is considered "terrorism," but it sounds like this is relatively likely to happen.

predictedYES

@arae I suspect it's not just the invasion but the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crimes_in_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/will-america-designate-russia-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/:

There is little doubt that Russia would technically qualify as a state sponsor of terrorism. Since the invasion began on February 24, the Russian military’s war crimes in Ukraine have been widely documented and are currently subject to a number of ongoing international investigations. To date, six countries have joined Ukraine in formally recognizing Russia’s invasion as an act of genocide. Individual atrocities including the mass murder of civilians in Bucha and the bombing of civilian targets such as shopping malls and hospitals have helped fuel calls for Russia to be recognized as a state sponsor of terrorism.