Will the S&P 500 index drop by 99% through September 12?

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resolved Sep 13

Resolved

NO

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The close value of the S&P 500 on the date this market opened was 4,283.74. This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at less than 42.84 on September 12 (a 99% drop). Otherwise resolves NO.

(Note that if the S&P drops below this threshold on a date before September 12, that does not cause a YES resolution).

Meta comment: This is intended as both as a market on black swan events and also as a comparison against similar "risk free interest rate" markets. None of them are entirely risk-free (e.g. author might misresolve, or author might get hit by a bus leaving the market abandoned unresolved), so the question is how much different types of risk empirically matter to market participants. Paired question:

Aug 20, 7:05pm: corrected 428.37 to 42.84.

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predictedNO

Resolves NO. S&P closed at 4,110.41

Market was at about 1% for most of the month, nearly the same as the paired question.

4283 to 428 is a 90% drop.

predictedNO

@CatIsFluffy oh thanks for catching my dumb mistake, updating it!

@jack tipping your comment since we can’t tip markets directly; really appreciate this comparison idea.

At least if my Fidelity portfolio crashes I'll have a decent haul of fake money.

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