The first (advance) estimate was negative, which points to a likely recession, but GDP figures are revised multiple times and the final numbers could be significantly different.

Resolves YES if the change in US real GDP for Q2 2022 compared to last quarter is reported as negative in the 2nd estimate according to BEA, see https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Resolves NO if it is >=0.

For reference, the first estimate (labelled Advanced estimate) is -0.9% (as an annualized percentage). https://apps.bea.gov/histdata/histChildLevels.cfm?HMI=7 has data on previously published estimates.

In case of ambiguity due to rounding (i.e. the reported figure is "0.0%" or similar) I will resolve according to whether reliable media publications report it as negative or not.

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