Each quarter resolves YES if, according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP decreased in that quarter.
If the headline GDP growth figure is zero as rounded to one decimal place (as normally reported), answers will resolve based on the underlying, un-rounded figure to whatever precision it is publicly available from the BEA.
Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Q3 2025: Due to BEA releasing only two estimates instead of the usual three, the market will resolve based on the latter of the two estimates released by the BEA.
1,000People are also trading
@chrisjbillington "BEA will release two estimates of third-quarter GDP, instead of the usual three estimates over three months" https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2025-12-10/economic-release-schedule-updates
How will Q3 resolve?
Q2 third estimate was positive, should resolve Q2 NO
Q1 third estimate was negative, resolving Q1 YES
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits