In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)
23
10kṀ73242026
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
79%
Q1
58%
Q2
41%
Q3
39%
Q4
Each quarter resolves YES if, according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP decreased in that quarter.
If the headline GDP growth figure is zero as rounded to one decimal place (as normally reported), answers will resolve based on the underlying, un-rounded figure to whatever precision it is publicly available from the BEA.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
65% chance
US real GDP growth in Q2 2025?
0.55
Will US Q2 GDP be positive?
45% chance
Do professional economic forecasters expect a US recession (two quarters negative GDP growth) to begin in 2025?
58% chance
Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
48% chance
Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
4% chance
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?
63% chance
Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2025?
2% chance
Will US real GDP in Q1 2030 be at least 50% greater than in Q1 2025?
35% chance
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
46% chance