Will Starship blow up on the pad today?
10
28
210
resolved Apr 18
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if SpaceX Starship experiences an explosive failure before clearing the launch tower, today Monday April 17. Otherwise NO.

Context:

“I guess I’d like to just set expectations low,” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said during a Twitter “Spaces” event for his subscribers Sunday evening. “If we get far enough away from launch pad before something goes wrong, then I think I would consider that to be a success. Just don’t blow up the pad.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/16/world/starship-spacex-launch-test-orbit-scn/index.html

(Note: if Starship just barely clears the tower and then explodes, that would not meet the criteria for this question, even though Musk would still count that as a failure.)

Clarifications:

  • Explosive failure means any failure of Starship that prevents it from reaching space and involves an explosion. It is not necessary that the rocket or the pad be destroyed.

  • If no test and no explosion happens today, that resolves NO.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

it was scrubbed but the vehicle is still sat on on the pad full of explosive propellant...

bought Ṁ500 of NO

It does seem clear this can't resolve until tomorrow.

predicted NO

@JimHays Exactly.

predicted NO

Launch attempt today was cancelled

bought Ṁ500 of NO

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