Resolves YES if SpaceX Starship experiences an explosive failure that prevents it from clearing the launch tower, by end of day Saturday April 22. Resolves NO if Starship successfully clears the launch tower, or nothing happens by April 22.

“I guess I’d like to just set expectations low,” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said during a Twitter “Spaces” event for his subscribers Sunday evening. “If we get far enough away from launch pad before something goes wrong, then I think I would consider that to be a success. Just don’t blow up the pad.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/16/world/starship-spacex-launch-test-orbit-scn/index.html

(Note: if Starship just barely clears the tower and then explodes, that would not meet the criteria for this question, even though Musk would still count that as a failure.)