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MANIFOLD
Will SpaceX Starship Flight 12 (the first Version 3 launch) successfully clear the pad by June 30, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ50
Jun 30
81%
chance

SpaceX completed an all-33-engine static fire of Starship V3 on April 14, 2026, clearing the final major technical hurdle before Flight 12. Elon Musk has stated Flight 12 is targeted for May 2026, approximately 4-6 weeks from April 3. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC June 30, 2026, SpaceX launches Starship Flight 12 (the first V3 stack) and the vehicle clears the launch pad — meaning ignition + liftoff that exceeds 100 meters of altitude before any failure. RESOLVES NO if Flight 12 has not launched by the deadline OR if it explodes/aborts on the pad before clearing 100m. Booster recovery, ship reentry, and orbital insertion are NOT required for YES — only successful liftoff.

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