Will SpaceX Starship Flight 12 (the first Version 3 launch) successfully clear the pad by June 30, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ50Jun 30
81%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
SpaceX completed an all-33-engine static fire of Starship V3 on April 14, 2026, clearing the final major technical hurdle before Flight 12. Elon Musk has stated Flight 12 is targeted for May 2026, approximately 4-6 weeks from April 3. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC June 30, 2026, SpaceX launches Starship Flight 12 (the first V3 stack) and the vehicle clears the launch pad — meaning ignition + liftoff that exceeds 100 meters of altitude before any failure. RESOLVES NO if Flight 12 has not launched by the deadline OR if it explodes/aborts on the pad before clearing 100m. Booster recovery, ship reentry, and orbital insertion are NOT required for YES — only successful liftoff.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
First fully successful Starship v3 flight?
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
9% chance
Will SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
1% chance
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
1% chance
Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?
30% chance
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?
20% chance