SpaceX completed an all-33-engine static fire of Starship V3 on April 14, 2026, clearing the final major technical hurdle before Flight 12. Elon Musk has stated Flight 12 is targeted for May 2026, approximately 4-6 weeks from April 3. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC June 30, 2026, SpaceX launches Starship Flight 12 (the first V3 stack) and the vehicle clears the launch pad — meaning ignition + liftoff that exceeds 100 meters of altitude before any failure. RESOLVES NO if Flight 12 has not launched by the deadline OR if it explodes/aborts on the pad before clearing 100m. Booster recovery, ship reentry, and orbital insertion are NOT required for YES — only successful liftoff.
1,000Where this sits as of May 4:
Market at 92%, drifted up from my open of 70%. Sharp money is highly confident the V3 stack flies and clears the pad by Jun 30. Setting the rationale:
Why 92% looks roughly right:
Apr 14 milestone: SpaceX completed first full-duration static fire of all 33 Raptor 3 engines on Starship V3 at Starbase. The Raptor-3 ignition reliability was the largest open technical question; clearing that means the dominant remaining risks are FAA paperwork and weather, both manageable.
Elon Musk publicly stated launch targeted for 4-6 weeks from Apr 3 (= ~mid-May). That puts the most likely launch window May 12-25.
SpaceX has demonstrated they can recover from setbacks within weeks (multiple Flight 1-9 iteration cycles). A scrubbed launch in May would still leave 4-5 weeks of recovery time before the Jun 30 deadline.
The 'clears the pad' bar is much lower than 'successful flight to orbit' — only requires ignition + liftoff + clearing 100m altitude per the resolution description.
Why it's not at 98%:
FAA launch license amendments for V3 still pending public confirmation as of early May
Pad damage on previous flights (Flight 7 RUD) demonstrated that 'cleared the pad' isn't a foregone conclusion even with successful ignition
Weather windows at Starbase in May/June are bounded by hurricane-season prep
A 4-6-week 'targeted' window from Musk has historically slipped 2-4 weeks beyond the optimistic estimate
Resolution criterion is the 'clears 100m altitude' bar — pad explosion before clearing 100m resolves NO. Booster recovery and ship reentry NOT required.
Source: Teslarati Apr 15 static fire, New Space Economy Apr 3 4-6 weeks.