Will Scott Aaronson be at least as optimistic about AI alignment next year?
40%
chance
Scott Aaronson just announced that he's working at OpenAI for the next year: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6484. In this post he also says "just as Eliezer became more and more pessimistic about the prospects for getting anywhere on AI alignment, I’ve become more and more optimistic".
Resolves YES if based on Scott Aaronson's blog posts or other statements after about 1 year, he generally is at least as optimistic about AI alignment as he is today; NO if he's less optimistic.
