Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony crime before 2030?
Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony crime before 2030?
8
150Ṁ2872030
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Sam Altman is criminally charged with a felony crime in the US before 2030. Otherwise NO.
See also: https://manifold.markets/post/felony-charges-in-crypto
Details:
This question will use the earliest time the charges are officially announced or reported by reliable media publications.
Timezone is Eastern time
Grand jury indictment counts. Charges filed as part of a plea bargain count. Other ways charges are brought count too.
Both state and federal charges count for this question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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