🏅 Top traders

Rest in Peace.

I was surprised how many people thought this would be a No. Good market though!

@hyperion I certainly thought she would live with a >50% chance. I didn't interpret "medical supervision" as seriously as it apparently was. I think base rates for this type of news would imply a quite low rate of death, but probably together with some of the other info it would have been correct to predict a higher probability. (I basically bet on the headlines alone, I didn't have time to look into it in more detail.)

Still not sure how to evaluate my prediction thought process, I'd be very curious to hear about what other people's thought processes were.

@jack I knew there had been scares before with reporting she'd been hospitalized, so I thought there was a decent chance this would be the same.

@IsaacKing Yeah, exactly my thoughts too. For example, hospitalization back in 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/10/21/queen-elizabeth-hospital/

@jack My prediction was mostly going on (a) similar lead ups to Prince Philip's death (b) the entire royal family rushing to Balmoral today to be at her bedside and (c) the royal family's gift for understatement and obscuring the situation, which means they will announce stuff like "the queen is in good spirits and being attended to by her doctor" even if she is about to die.

There were other clues as well (the BBC anchors all wearing black). Reddit called it pretty early: https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/x8yavr/doctors_concerned_for_queen_elizabeths_health/

Great link. 4-5 hours early! It makes sense to conclude that she had already passed away and they were holding the official announcement until her family could get there.

@jack My evidence was :

• Family being called in by doctors means the doctors believe that the patient is going to die in the next few days if not hours.

• (weak evidence) Some redditors commenting they had inside info and that London Bridge had been called already.

• IIRC, the previous time the Queen was a bit sick, the news just reported that she was unwell, not that the doctors were worried.

• News channel Canada started putting the Queen's bio out.

@hyperion I expected that maybe she will die, but I expected that there is a decent chance that it will not happen so soon.

I already have seen few years ago articles about her death - published too early.

Misclicks happen.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1567928275913121792

Also on BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61585886 "Queen Elizabeth II has died, Buckingham Palace announces"

@jack Curious why you were still buying NO quite recently?

I bought NO right before I saw the news and then sold it after I saw the news. The timestamp is for my comment, not for the buy.

I wonder what the odds are of the Queen "retiring" and naming Charles the Prince Regent

Weird that this market is higher than her being hospitalised within the month. Maybe an arbitrage opportunity?

@arae Maybe. But she'll be getting fantastic care at the castle anyway. I recon she would get better treatment at a hospital, but that she wouldn't want to leave Balmoral

@arae If I were an infinitely rich 96 year old there's no way in hell I'd allow myself to be transported to a hospital to die. It's well past the proper time for heroic measures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-62834633

I have not checked anything, I bet against media panic